The scoreboard

Which model to trust, city by city.

Exact whole-degree-bin hit rate, one day ahead, graded in the open. The best model is a different model in nearly every city — and we show the ones we're bad at too. Record start date: to be announced; figures below are Sample data until then.

City ▲▼	Metric	Best model ▲▼	Hit rate ▲▼	Runner-up	Source

prior computed earlier from our data sample illustrative, not yet computed

Honesty is the point: once the 20-year GEFS reforecast is processed, every row here becomes a verified 20-year number — including the weak ones.